By Paolo von Schirach
President, Global Policy Institute; Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bay Atlantic University, both in Washington, DC
The promise of electric vehicles, EVs, is that they will do away with internal combustion engines powered by oil derived gasoline. The elimination of internal combustion engines will translate into a dramatic reduction of harmful emissions caused by burning gasoline, this way helping mankind to reduce the greenhouse gases that trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere. As we all know, the greenhouse effect causes higher temperatures, global warming, and down the line climate change.
That said, EVs may be at the foundation of another revolution. Assume for a moment better, cheaper EVs –and we are getting there. Furthermore, assume the scaling up of driverless technologies already deployed in test cities like Phoenix, Arizona, by Waymo, a division of Alphabet, (read Google), in partnership with Uber, and a revolution in urban transportation unfolds.
In this new environment, urban dwellers will be able to be driven fast and reliably to their destinations, without the stress of driving, and without the inconvenience of being stuck in traffic. Indeed, with appropriate fleet management software, supervised by the Uber-like services, there will always be an EV nearby –day and night. No concern about being stuck somewhere with no transportation. No concern about being late. And since the same vehicles will serve many passengers within a 24 hours period, the number of cars on the road at any given time will be dramatically reduced. Hence the end of congestion.
You begin to see the value proposition of this new offer. A driverless Uber EV fleet will have very low operating costs –no driver and cheap fuel– and this will translate into very affordable, low fares. Hence high demand. And there is more.
In most cases, the guaranteed availability of a reliable, 24/7, on demand and cheap vehicle will make owning your own car superfluous. As long as the would-be rider knows that a vehicle will always be there, in almost no time, whenever needed, for most people there will be no need to own a car.
So, imagine that all this is real, happening today. As a result of this urban transportation revolution, in your city there are hardly any private vehicles left. In the streets you see mostly, if not only, driverless Uber EVs. As they are constantly utilized, no need to waste valuable urban real estate to have enormous parking garages. And, since the same vehicle serves many different customers throughout the day, far fewer vehicles on the road. And this means the end of rush hour traffic, horrible congestion and endless delays.
Waymo has been operating in Phoenix for quite some time. This means that the system has already accumulated an enormous amount of stored and processed information about millions of different road contingencies. This means that the driverless car has become or is becoming “intelligent.” Eventually it will be capable of managing all road situations. At that point, this new transportation modality will be scaled up, thus becoming the new normal. Imagine that. Low cost, convenience, reliability, and zero emissions.